Automatic segmentation of organs at risk in head and neck carcinoma from radiation therapy using multi-scale fusion and attention based mechanisms / 中华放射肿瘤学杂志

Objective:To develop a multi-scale fusion and attention mechanism based image automatic segmentation method of organs at risk (OAR) from head and neck carcinoma radiotherapy.Methods:We proposed a new OAR segmentation method for medical images of heads and necks based on the U-Net convolution neural network. Spatial and channel squeeze excitation (csSE) attention block were combined with the U-Net, aiming to enhance the feature expression ability. We also proposed a multi-scale block in the U-Net encoding stage to supplement characteristic information. Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and 95% Hausdorff distance (HD) were used as evaluation criteria for deep learning performance.Results:The segmentation of 22 OAR in the head and neck was performed according to the medical image computing computer assisted intervention (MICCAI) StructSeg2019 dataset. The proposed method improved the average segmentation accuracy by 3%-6% compared with existing methods. The average DSC in the segmentation of 22 OAR in the head and neck was 78.90% and the average 95%HD was 6.23 mm.Conclusion:Automatic segmentation of OAR from the head and neck CT using multi-scale fusion and attention mechanism achieves high segmentation accuracy, which is promising for enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of radiotherapy in clinical practice.

Textual research on ancient and modern literature and analysis on research hot spots of classical prescription Shenling baizhu powder / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To provide reference for the clinical application and further research and development of Shenling baizhu powder. METHODS Using the methods of textual research and bibliometrics， the key information such as the composition， dose， processing and usage of Shenling baizhu powder in ancient and modern literature were systematically summarized and sorted out， and the number of publications， keywords， and other contents of modern literature were visually analyzed. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS Shenling baizhu powder was first collected in Taiping Huimin Hejiju Fang （abbreviated “Jufang”）， the composition of core drugs and most widely used dose ratio in previous generations were the same as those in Jufang， basically focusing on powder making and being taken after mixed with liquid； the dosage was concentrated on 2-3 qian； the function and application of it had been expanded to a certain extent compared with Jufang； its clinical application had gradually extended from internal medicine to surgery， gynecology， pediatrics， ophthalmology， dermatology， etc.， covering all aspects of the disease caused by spleen deficiency in general； the composition mechanism revolved around “strengthening the spleen， replenishing qi and removing dampness”； the recommended prescription drugs were all selected from the corresponding varieties in the pharmacopoeia. Modern research mainly focuses on clinical practice， with traditional Chinese medicine or traditional Chinese and Western medicine combined with this formula as the main modified treatment for various intestinal diseases， diarrhea diseases， and lung diseases. The efficacy and application are the frontier hot spots today， and the mechanism of action has begun to be explored. The usage in the literature and the inclusion in the pharmacopoeia are inconsistent， and further research is needed.

Eleven new sesquiterpenoids from peeled stems of Syringa pinnatifolia / 中国中药杂志

The peeled stems of Syringa pinnatifolia(SP) is a representative Mongolian folk medicine with the effects of anti-depression, heat clearance, pain relief, and respiration improvement. It has been clinically used for the treatment of coronary heart disease, insomnia, asthma, and other cardiopulmonary diseases. As part of the systematic study on pharmacological substances of SP, 11 new sesquiterpenoids were isolated from the terpene-containing fractions of the ethanol extract of SP by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry(LC-MS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance(~1H-NMR) guided isolation methods. The planar structures of the sesquiterpenoids were identified by MS, 1D NMR, and 2D NMR data analysis, and were named pinnatanoids C and D(1 and 2), and alashanoids T-ZI(3-11), respectively. The structure types of the sesquiterpenoids included pinnatane, humulane, seco-humulane, guaiane, carryophyllane, seco-erimolphane, isodaucane, and other types. However, limited to the low content of compounds, the existence of multiple chiral centers, the flexibility of the structure, or lack of ultraviolet absorption, the stereoscopic configuration remained unresolved. The discovery of various sesquiterpenoids enriches the understanding of the chemical composition of the genus and species and provides references for further analysis of pharmacological substances of SP.

Research Progress on the Application of Intervention Mapping in Tertiary Prevention of Cancer / 中国医学科学院学报

Intervention mapping (IM) is a framework for formulating theory-and evidence-based health education projects with participatory approaches from ecological perspectives.The intervention program designed via IM plays a role in reducing the exposure of cancer risk factors,increasing cancer prevention behaviors,and promoting early cancer screening and rehabilitation of cancer patients.This study summarizes the characteristics,implementation steps,and application status of IM in tertiary prevention of cancer,aiming to provide reference for the application of IM in the health education projects for cancer in China.

"Typhoidal Cells" Appear in a Woman with Hemophagocytic Syndrome Secondary To Brucellosis: A Case Report / 中国医学科学杂志(英文版)

We report a case of hemophagocytic syndrome (HPS) secondary to brucellosis, in which typhoidal cells were found in bone marrow, suggesting typhoidal cells present not only in Salmonella typhi infections but also in other bacterial infections. Typhoidal cells in bone marrow can be used to quickly identify the presence of bacterial infection pending the results of bone marrow and/or blood cultures.

Mechanism of tonifying kidney and activating blood therapy for premature ovarian failure:a review / 中国中药杂志

Healthy birth and child development are the prerequisite for improving the overall quality of the population. However, premature ovarian failure(POF) threatens the reproductive health of women. The incidence of this disease has been on the rise, and it tends to occur in the young. The causes are complex, involving genetics, autoimmune, infectious and iatrogenic factors, but most of the causes remain unclear. At the moment, hormone replacement therapy and assisted reproductive technology are the main clinical approaches. According to traditional Chinese medicine(TCM), kidney deficiency and blood stasis are one of the major causes of POF, and TCM with the effects of tonifying kidney and activating blood has a definite effect. Through clinical trials, TCM prescriptions for POF have excellent therapeutic effect as a result of multi-target regulation and slight toxicity. In particular, they have no obvious side effects. A large number of studies have shown that the kidney-tonifying and blood-activating TCM can regulate the neuroendocrine function of hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis, improve ovarian hemodynamics and microcirculation, reduce the apoptosis of granulosa cells, alleviate oxidative stress injury, and modulate immunologic balance. The mechanism is that it regulates the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt), vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF), transforming growth factor(TGF)-β/Smads, nuclear factor E2-related factor 2(Nrf2)/antioxidant response element(ARE), and nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-κB) signaling pathways. This article summarized the pathological mechanisms of tonifying kidney and activating blood TCM in the prevention and treatment of POF and explored the biological basis of its multi-pathway and multi-target characteristics in the treatment of this disease. As a result, this study is expected to serve as a reference for the treatment of POF with the tonifying kidney and activating blood therapy.

China guideline for liver cancer screening (2022, Beijing) / 临床肝胆病杂志

In China, the survival rate of liver cancer remains low while the mortality rate is high. Effectively reducing the burden of liver cancer is still a major challenge in the field of public health and chronic disease prevention in the Chinese population. Optimizing screening strategies for liver cancer remains a profound approach to secondary prevention worthy of continuous exploration. To address this pressing issue, the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission commissioned this guideline. The National Cancer Center of China initiated the guideline development and convened a multidisciplinary expert panel and working groups. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline integrated the most up-to-date evidence of liver cancer screening, China's national conditions, and existing practical experience in liver cancer screening. Evidence-based recommendations on the target population, screening technologies, surveillance strategies, and other key points across the process of liver cancer screening and surveillance management were provided. This guideline would help standardize the practice of liver cancer screening in China.

Anterior Cingulate Cortex Mediates Hyperalgesia and Anxiety Induced by Chronic Pancreatitis in Rats / 神经科学通报·英文版

Central sensitization is essential in maintaining chronic pain induced by chronic pancreatitis (CP), but cortical modulation of painful CP remains elusive. Here, we examined the role of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in the pathogenesis of abdominal hyperalgesia in a rat model of CP induced by intraductal administration of trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid (TNBS). TNBS treatment resulted in long-term abdominal hyperalgesia and anxiety in rats. Morphological data indicated that painful CP induced a significant increase in FOS-expressing neurons in the nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS) and ACC, and some FOS-expressing neurons in the NTS projected to the ACC. In addition, a larger portion of ascending fibers from the NTS innervated pyramidal neurons, the neural subpopulation primarily expressing FOS under the condition of painful CP, rather than GABAergic neurons within the ACC. CP rats showed increased expression of vesicular glutamate transporter 1, and increased membrane trafficking and phosphorylation of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit NR2B and the α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid receptor (AMPAR) subunit GluR1 within the ACC. Microinjection of NMDAR and AMPAR antagonists into the ACC to block excitatory synaptic transmission significantly attenuated abdominal hyperalgesia in CP rats, which was similar to the analgesic effect of endomorphins injected into the ACC. Specifically inhibiting the excitability of ACC pyramidal cells via chemogenetics reduced both hyperalgesia and comorbid anxiety, whereas activating these neurons via optogenetics failed to aggravate hyperalgesia and anxiety in CP rats. Taken together, these findings provide neurocircuit, biochemical, and behavioral evidence for involvement of the ACC in hyperalgesia and anxiety in CP rats, as well as novel insights into the cortical modulation of painful CP, and highlights the ACC as a potential target for neuromodulatory interventions in the treatment of painful CP.

Cancer statistics in China and United States, 2022: profiles, trends, and determinants / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#The cancer burden in the United States of America (USA) has decreased gradually. However, China is experiencing a transition in its cancer profiles, with greater incidence of cancers that were previously more common in the USA. This study compared the latest cancer profiles, trends, and determinants between China and USA.@*METHODS@#This was a comparative study using open-source data. Cancer cases and deaths in 2022 were calculated using cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2020 and population estimates from the United Nations. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in the USA used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and National Center for Health Statistics. Chinese data were obtained from cancer registry reports. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and a decomposition method were used to express cancer deaths as the product of four determinant factors.@*RESULTS@#In 2022, there will be approximately 4,820,000 and 2,370,000 new cancer cases, and 3,210,000 and 640,000 cancer deaths in China and the USA, respectively. The most common cancers are lung cancer in China and breast cancer in the USA, and lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer and colorectal cancer in the USA have decreased significantly recently, but rates of liver cancer have increased slightly. Rates of stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer decreased gradually in China, but rates have increased for colorectal cancer in the whole population, prostate cancer in men, and other seven cancer types in women. Increases in adult population size and population aging were major determinants for incremental cancer deaths, and case-fatality rates contributed to reduced cancer deaths in both countries.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The decreasing cancer burden in liver, stomach, and esophagus, and increasing burden in lung, colorectum, breast, and prostate, mean that cancer profiles in China and the USA are converging. Population aging is a growing determinant of incremental cancer burden. Progress in cancer prevention and care in the USA, and measures to actively respond to population aging, may help China to reduce the cancer burden.

China guideline for the screening and early detection of prostate cancer (2022, Beijing) / 中华肿瘤杂志

Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the malignant tumors of the genitourinary system that occurs more often in elderly men. Screening, early diagnosis, and treatment of the PC high risk population are essential to improve the cure rate of PC. The development of the guideline for PC screening and early detection in line with epidemic characteristics of PC in China will greatly promote the homogeneity and quality of PC screening. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated and convened a working group comprising multidisciplinary experts. This guideline strictly followed the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development and combined the most up-to-date evidence of PC screening, China's national conditions, and practical experience in cancer screening. A total of fifteen detailed evidence-based recommendations were provided with respect to the screening population, technology, procedure management, and quality control in the process of PC screening. This guideline aimed to standardize the practice of PC screening and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of PC prevention and control in China.

China guideline for liver cancer screening (2022, Beijing) / 中华消化外科杂志

In China, the survival rate of liver cancer remains low while the mortality rate is high. Effectively reducing the burden of liver cancer is still a major challenge in the field of public health and chronic disease prevention in the Chinese population. Optimizing screening strategies for liver cancer remains a profound approach to secondary prevention worthy of continuous explora-tion. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated the guideline develop-ment and convened a multidisciplinary expert panel and working group. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline integrated the most up-to-date evidence of liver cancer screening, China′s national conditions, and existing practical experience in liver cancer screening. Evidence-based recommendations on the target population, screening technologies, surveillance strategies, and other key points across the process of liver cancer screening and surveillance management were provided. This guideline would help to standardize the practice of liver cancer screening in China.

China guideline for the screening, early detection and early treatment of gastric cancer (2022, Beijing) / 中华消化外科杂志

Gastric cancer (GC) is a major digestive tract malignancy in China, which seriously threatens the health of Chinese population. A large number of researches have demons-trated that screening, early detection and early treatment are effective in reducing the incidence and mortality of GC. The development of the guideline for GC screening, early detection and early treatment in line with epidemic characteristics of GC in China will greatly promote the homogeneity and standardization, and improve the effect of GC screening. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated and convened a working group comprising multidisciplinary experts. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline combined the most up-to-date evidence of GC screening, China′s national conditions, and practical experience in cancer screening. This guideline provided evidence-based recommendations with respect to the screening population, technology and procedure management, aiming to improve the effect of GC screening and provide scientific evidence for the GC prevention and control in China.

China guideline for the screening, early detection and early treatment of esophageal cancer (2022, Beijing) / 中华消化外科杂志

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a major digestive tract malignancy in China, which seriously threatens the health of Chinese population. A large number of researches have demons-trated that screening and early detection are effective in reducing the incidence and mortality of EC. The development of the guideline for EC screening and early detection in line with epidemic characteristics of EC in China will greatly promote the homogeneity and standardization, and improve the effect of EC screening. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated and convened a working group comprising multidisciplinary experts. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline combined the most up-to-date evidence of EC screening, China′s national conditions, and practical experience in cancer screening. This guideline provided evidence-based recommendations with respect to the screening population, technology and procedure management, aiming to improve the effect of EC screening and provide scientific evidence for the EC prevention and control in China.

China guideline for the screening, early detection and early treatment of gastric cancer (2022, Beijing) / 中华肿瘤杂志

Gastric cancer (GC) is a major digestive tract malignancy in China, which seriously threatens the health of Chinese population. A large number of researches have demons-trated that screening, early detection and early treatment are effective in reducing the incidence and mortality of GC. The development of the guideline for GC screening, early detection and early treatment in line with epidemic characteristics of GC in China will greatly promote the homogeneity and standardization, and improve the effect of GC screening. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated and convened a working group comprising multidisciplinary experts. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline combined the most up-to-date evidence of GC screening, China's national conditions, and practical experience in cancer screening. This guideline provided evidence-based recommendations with respect to the screening population, technology and procedure management, aiming to improve the effect of GC screening and provide scientific evidence for the GC prevention and control in China.

China guideline for the screening, early detection and early treatment of esophageal cancer (2022, Beijing) / 中华肿瘤杂志

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a major digestive tract malignancy in China, which seriously threatens the health of Chinese population. A large number of researches have demonstrated that screening and early detection are effective in reducing the incidence and mortality of EC. The development of the guideline for EC screening and early detection in line with epidemic characteristics of EC in China will greatly promote the homogeneity and standardization, and improve the effect of EC screening. This guideline was commissioned by the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission. The National Cancer Center of China initiated and convened a working group comprising multidisciplinary experts. Following the World Health Organization Handbook for Guideline Development, this guideline combined the most up-to-date evidence of EC screening, China's national conditions, and practical experience in cancer screening. This guideline provided evidence-based recommendations with respect to the screening population, technology and procedure management, aiming to improve the effect of EC screening and provide scientific evidence for the EC prevention and control in China.

Changing profiles of cancer burden worldwide and in China: a secondary analysis of the global cancer statistics 2020 / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Cancer is one of the leading causes of death globally, but its burden is not uniform. GLOBOCAN 2020 has newly updated the estimates of cancer burden. This study summarizes the most recent changing profiles of cancer burden worldwide and in China and compares the cancer data of China with those of other regions.@*METHODS@#We conducted a descriptive secondary analysis of the GLOBOCAN 2020 data. To depict the changing global profile of the leading cancer types in 2020 compared with 2018, we extracted the numbers of cases and deaths in 2018 from GLOBOCAN 2018. We also obtained cancer incidence and mortality from the 2015 National Cancer Registry Report in China when sorting the leading cancer types by new cases and deaths. For the leading cancer types according to sex in China, we summarized the estimated numbers of incidence and mortality, and calculated China's percentage of the global new cases and deaths.@*RESULTS@#Breast cancer displaced lung cancer to become the most leading diagnosed cancer worldwide in 2020. Lung, liver, stomach, breast, and colon cancers were the top five leading causes of cancer-related death, among which liver cancer changed from the third-highest cancer mortality in 2018 to the second-highest in 2020. China accounted for 24% of newly diagnosed cases and 30% of the cancer-related deaths worldwide in 2020. Among the 185 countries included in the database, China's age-standardized incidence rate (204.8 per 100,000) ranked 65th and the age-standardized mortality rate (129.4 per 100,000) ranked 13th. The two rates were above the global average. Lung cancer remained the most common cancer type and the leading cause of cancer death in China. However, breast cancer became the most frequent cancer type among women if the incidence was stratified by sex. Incidences of colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased rapidly. The leading causes of cancer death varied minimally in ranking from 2015 to 2020 in China. Gastrointestinal cancers, including stomach, colorectal, liver, and esophageal cancers, contributed to a massive burden of cancer for both sexes.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The burden of breast cancer is increasing globally. China is undergoing cancer transition with an increasing burden of lung cancer, gastrointestinal cancer, and breast cancers. The mortality rate of cancer in China is high. Comprehensive strategies are urgently needed to target China's changing profiles of the cancer burden.

Rutaecarpine exerted anti-osteroporosis / 药学学报

Osteoprotegerin (OPG), secreted by osteoblasts, is a marker of bone turnover. OPG can inhibit osteoclastic differentiation by binding receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL). In this study, we found that rutaecarpine (RUT) had the up-regulating OPG activity, and it could significantly increase OPG protein levels in both mouse embryonic osteogenic precursor MC3T3-E1 and human osteosarcoma U-2OS cells. Osteoblastogenic differentiation calcified nodules staining results showed that RUT significantly promoted the osteogenic differentiation of MC3T3-E1 cells. Osteoclastic differentiation tartrate resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) staining results showed that RUT obviously inhibited the osteoclast differentiation of mouse macrophages RAW264.7 induced by RANKL. In vivo studies showed that low-dose RUT group (5 mg·kg-1·day-1) and high-dose RUT group (45 mg·kg-1·day-1) treatments for 3 months significantly increased bone density in ovariectomized (OVX) rats; calcein double labeling experiment and toluidine blue staining results indicated that low-dose RUT group promoted bone formation and decreased bone loss in vivo; immunohistochemistry results showed that low-dose RUT group increased the expression of OPG in rat femur. All animal procedures were performed in accordance with the regulations of the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee of Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. In summary, this study demonstrated that RUT could up-regulate OPG expression and had promoting osteoblastic differentiation and inhibiting osteoclastic differentiation effects in vitro and in vivo.

Research Progress of Adaptive Intervention / 中国医学科学院学报

Adaptive intervention(AI)is a methodology which dynamically evaluates adaptive variables at decision points and timely adjusts and develops tailored strategies to meet individual needs.The study reviewed the origin and development and elaborated the core elements(including intervention outcomes,intervention options,decision points,tailoring variables,and decision rules)and the classification of AI.Based on the literature,the key points of the design and implementation of AI were prospected,which can provide evidence for the research and development of health behavior intervention.

Risk factors for gastric cancer: a large-scale, population-based case-control study / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Early detection of gastric cancer (GC) has been the topic of major efforts in China. This study aimed to explore the risk factors associated with GC and to provide evidence for the selection of a high-risk population of GC.@*METHODS@#Based on the cancer screening cohort of the National Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, GC patients diagnosed by endoscopy and pathological examinations constituted the case group, and controls were 1:3 matched by sex and age (±5 years) individually. The variables were selected by univariable analysis of factors such as body mass index (BMI), dietary habits, lifestyle, stomach disease history, and family history of GC; and multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of GC and to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of related factors and its 95% confidence interval (CI).@*RESULTS@#A total of 215 GC cases and 645 matched healthy controls were included in the final analysis, with a median age of 61 years for the case and control groups. Overall analysis showed that high educational level (above primary school) (OR = 0.362, 95% CI = 0.219-0.599, P < 0.001), overweight/obesity (BMI ≥24 kg/m2; OR = 0.489, 95% CI = 0.329-0.726, P < 0.001), cigarette smoking (OR = 3.069, 95% CI = 1.700-5.540, P < 0.001), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.661, 95% CI = 1.028-2.683, P = 0.038), history of stomach disease (OR = 6.917, 95% CI = 4.594-10.416, P < 0.001), and family history of GC in first-degree relatives (OR = 4.291, 95% CI = 1.661-11.084, P = 0.003) were significantly correlated with the occurrence of GC. Subgroup analyses by age and gender indicated that GC risk was still increased in the presence of a history of stomach disease. A history of chronic gastritis, gastric ulcer, or gastric polyposis was positively associated with GC, with adjusted ORs of 4.155 (95% CI = 2.711-6.368), 1.839 (95% CI = 1.028-3.288), and 2.752 (95% CI = 1.197-6.326).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Subjects who smoke, drink, with history of stomach disease and family history of GC in first-degree relatives are the high-risk populations for GC. Therefore, attention should be paid to these subjects for GC screening.

Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of cardiovascular disease mortality / 上海预防医学

Objective:To use autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model for predicting the mortality of cardiovascular diseases in residents in Yushui District， Jiangxi Province， and to provide basis for developing the prevention and control strategies as well as to promote the continuous optimization of chronic disease prevention and treatment demonstration area. Methods:Based on the cardiovascular death monitoring data of residents in Yushui District， Jiangxi Province from 2014 to 2018， Econometrics View 9.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA seasonal adjustment model to predict the monthly cardiovascular death in this area. Results:The monthly death rate of cardiovascular diseases in Yushui showed a long-term rising trend， with an apparent seasonal pattern （a peak of cardiovascular death from December to January each year）. After the original sequence was subjected to first-order difference and first-order seasonal difference， the difference sequence showed good stationarity （P<0.05）. All the theoretical models were listed and their model parameters were calculated respectively. After statistical test （P<0.05）， 7 alternative models for seasonal adjustment of ARIMA were selected. Among them， ARIMA（1，1，1）（1，1，1）12 is the optimal model selected in this study （R2=0.749， Adjustment R2=0.724， AIC=8.454， SC=8.633， HQ=8.515）.And its residual sequence was tested by white noise test （P>0.05）， indicating that the prediction effect was good. Conclusion:ARIMA（1，1，1）（1，1，1） 12 model can accurately simulate the long-term trend and seasonal pattern of cardiovascular disease death in Yushui， and make a scientific prediction of the trend and monthly distribution of cardiovascular disease death in the next three years.